Wednesday, 3 August 2016

Trump Will Win

Canadians will be butt-hurt

Its funny to read an article that talks about how underestimating Trump is part of the reason he has made it so far, while in the same breath saying “Canadian’s marvel at circus of US election” i’m not referring to a specific article here or anything…

Its late in the election cycle and to anyone who takes the time to research will realize a Trump presidency is pretty much guaranteed at this point. Yet CBC continues to talk about increased fractures in the Republican party, and does an entire radio shows where they call a nominee for president, an asshole. No seriously, our national broadcaster, who are supposed to be objective in their reporting did an entire radio show about Trumps “psychology” and how much of an asshole he is. Here’s the description of the person they gave public radio time to, in order to make his “argument”
Aaron James, a professor and chair of philosophy at the University of California and author of Assholes: A Theory of Donald Trump, joins the conversation to argue Trump fits the profile of a prototypical "asshole." He has written extensively about the behavioural characteristics of assholes in his bestselling book Assholes: A Theory.
So this is what the journalism surrounding a leading candidate looks like. Sad really, and the fact that our tax dollars are paying for someone to call a leading American politician an asshole for 30+ minutes on public radio is even sadder.

So why do I think Trump will win? Well first of all, i’m not alone in this idea. Leading American pollster Nate Silver has predicted a Trump win - he has since changed his prediction (or rather his website “538” has taken more data into account) but I believe his prediction from July 25th to be one of the closest so far.
(A prediction that while interesting has far to much Blue for me)

However this isn’t my prediction of how american will look after the election. I believe it will look a little more like this:
(The election map from the 1980 election of Ronald Reagan
changes I would make are minor, California likely won't go to Trump,
but this map is red enough for my tastes)

In my opinion, Trump is riding high on the same thing that caused the 2009 Orange Crush, the same factors that led to a yes vote for BREXIT, the same movement that frothed at the mouth shouting “stop Harper” while electing the second Trudeau PM. Trump's rise is part of the “anti-status quo” movement (a term of my own creation). In all the examples i’ve given, the vote that won, was the one that was against something. In the most successful examples, its the vote thats against the status quo.

There’s a lot of reasons why this is, and one of the biggest in my opinion is the human condition. Its a lot easier to convince people to get out and change something, if there is actually something to change. Take BREXIT, where to have won the “no” vote, politicians and pundits were tasked with convincing people to come out and vote to not change things. Why would you take time out of your day to turn up and vote for nothing. If you look at the last election in Canada, the voter turnout itself was what won the Liberal government an overwhelming majority. The other parties got less of the popular vote, but in many ridings, the candidate that lost got more votes than they ha in previous elections. Take the former deputy leader of the NDP Meagan Leslie, who lost her riding to political unknown Andy Fillmore. Ms. Leslie got  more votes than she had in the previous election, even though she lost. Mr. Fillmore (with help from Trudeau and co.) created a lot of new voters, thousands of them in fact. Why? Again, Leslie was the incumbent, the NDP didn’t do a good job of separating itself from the status quo, and with many people’s voting choice basically being a fuck you to the Harper status quo, Halifaxians (not sure of the demonym sorry Halifax) who hadn't voted came out in unpredictable numbers and voted against the status quo.

Think of it this way: its much easier to sell voting for a “change” , than voting to "change" something by electing the same person who previously held the position, ie an incumbent.

The American political system is broken, and it needs to be completely destroyed before it can be replaced. I strongly believe that Trump will get between 52-55% of the popular vote, because that’s how many Americans I believe think the system is broken.

No one cares that Hilary Clinton is a woman, she's played that out. Tipper Gore didn’t project Walter Mondale to a win, and she was the first female VP Candidate. Actually you know what, since i've already called upon the ghost of Reagan i'll go with that analogy.

Trump is the new Reagan, and Hilary Clinton is Walter Mondale. Which makes Tim Kaine... Tipper Gore.
Image result for tim kaineImage result for tipper gore

No comments:

Post a Comment